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• Title: Energy/Mineral Rentierism and Global Civil Conflict, 1991-1999
• Author : Umar Abdullah Moulta-Ali
• Release Date : January 18, 2013
• Genre: Politics & Current Events,Books,History,
• Pages : * pages
• Size : 12605 KB

Description

Results from the natural resource-civil conflict literature are mixed. Some seminal studies assert that revenue or rents accrued to governments from the extraction and export of energy or mineral-based resources increase a country's propensity toward civil conflict due to "looting" or "greed" from rebel insurgency, an aggrieved populace (Collier and Hoeffler 2004, Collier and Hoeffler 2006) or weakened state capacity (Fearon and Laitin 2003). Yet, other scholars contend that the resource-conflict relationship is negative (Smith 2004) or possibly spurious (Ross 2006). However, past research has focused too narrowly on civil war battle-deaths as an outcome, virtually ignoring low-intensity conflict. Additionally, most measures of natural resource dependence or rentierism are too crude to draw a strong connection to conflict. This dissertation incorporates a more refined measure of energy and mineral-based resource dependence from the World Bank Adjusted Net Savings database coupled with a broader definition of "civil conflict" using data from the World Handbook for Political Indicators IV. Utilizing a robust set of indicators in annualized time-series cross-section models, I explore whether energy or mineral rentierism is a predictor of nonviolent protest, civil violence or intrastate war.Estimates from a sequence of negative binomial regression equations for 104 countries indicate that the effects of energy and mineral rentierism on civil protest and violence are largely contextual. Religious fractionalization, political repression and state relaxation tend to make mineral-dependent states more susceptible to protest. While "keeping the peace" is difficult to sustain within religiously plural, mineral-wealthy societies, these results further imply that increased repression or regime concessions also create opportunities for protest within this context. Religious and ethnic diversity additionally contribute to civil violence amongst mineral rentiers. In contrast, energy rentiers with highmilitary expenditures enjoy relative respite from protest and civil violence. The prospect of confronting a strong military apparently makes violent and nonviolent rebellion unattractive options. Wealth also serves as a deterrent to protest amongst energy-rich countries, suggesting that affluent citizens are unlikely to express political dissent at the risk of economic loss. Furthermore, separate logit estimates for 116 countries indicate that religiously fractionalized energy rentiers are less civil war-prone, signifying a "peace dividend" created by religious diversity.Overall, these analyses illustrate that the effects of energy and mineral rentierism on civil conflict are fundamentally context-specific and highly sensitive to model specification. While some mineral rentiers are predisposed to conflict and certain types of energy states are less vulnerable, there is little evidence to support a universal theory for the natural resource-conflict nexus. These findings merit further debate and empirical investigation to discern the specific characteristics of energy and mineral-dependent states that experience or evade widespread civil conflict.

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